Why BJP is struggling in Kerala bypolls as campaign deadline looms

Reasons range from delay in announcement of candidates to questionable selection of nominees. BJP’s Central leadership hummed and hawed over choosing candidates even though UDF and LDF had begun electioneering activities, say party insiders

With campaigning for bypolls in the Wayanad Lok Sabha and Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly seats in Kerala set to end soon, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself lagging behind in the no-holds-barred fight between the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front.

The reasons range from the delay in the announcement of candidates to questionable selection of nominees. The Central leadership hummed and hawed over choosing the candidates even though the UDF and the LDF had begun electioneering activities, say BJP insiders.

The candidature of State general secretary C. Krishnakumar for Palakkad seems to have met with tepid response from party workers and voters alike. This segment, where the party has consistently secured the second position in the previous two elections, witnessed a telling moment when probable candidate Shobha Surendran’s rally drew larger crowds than Mr. Krishnakumar’s roadshow. His performance in the Lok Sabha polls showed that he could poll only a little over 43,000 votes, while technocrat E. Sreedharan secured over 50,000 votes in the Assembly polls in 2021.

Likewise, the party chose Kozhikode Corporation councillor Navya Haridas for Wayanad when the Central leadership preferred BJP State president K. Surendran, who had contested the 2024 general elections from the constituency, or State general secretary M.T. Ramesh or Ms. Surendran to contest. However, they all backed off citing different reasons, sources said.

In the reserved segment of Chelakkara, where the party’s prospects remain minimal, the leadership has nominated K. Balakrishnan, a former grama panchayat president.

Historically, the party has displayed paralysis during bypolls in Kerala. Examples include the embarrassment of former State presidents P.S. Sreedharan Pillai and C.K. Padmanabhan, who finished a poor third in the Chengannur Assembly bypoll in 2018 and the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha bypoll in 2005 respectively. While Mr. Pillai’s vote share dipped by 5.65 percentage points from the previous 2016 elections, Mr. Padmanabhan’s vote share nose-dived by a staggering 25.03 percentage points.

In the byelections for Puthuppally (2023) and Thrikkakara (2022) that were dominated by sympathy waves, the BJP’s vote share declined by 3.82 and 6.13 percentage points respectively. Congress candidates emerged victorious in both constituencies – Chandy Oommen succeeded his late father and former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, while Uma Thomas won the seat previously held by her deceased husband, P.T. Thomas.

In the 2019 byelection in Manjeswaram, BJP’s candidate Raveesh Thanthri Kuntar lost by 7,923 votes – a stark contrast to the narrow margin of 89 votes by which Mr. Surendran had faced defeat in the 2016 Assembly elections.

A similar pattern was seen in Vattiyurkavu’s 2019 byelection, where BJP candidate S. Suresh secured only 22.16% of the votes. This represented a massive drop from the party’s performance in 2016 when BJP leader Kummanam Rajasekharan had reached second place with 32.19% of the vote share.

However, in the 2019 Konni byelection, Mr. Surendran garnered 28.65% of votes, marking an increase of 16.99 percentage points from what his BJP candidate D. Asokakumar achieved in 2016. This surge could be attributed to Mr. Surendran’s candidature in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency, in which the Konni Assembly segment falls. His prominence during the controversies surrounding the Supreme Court’s verdict on women’s entry to the Lord Ayyappa temple likely resonated with voters in this Assembly segment.

Published - November 04, 2024 02:17 pm IST