Japan’s new Prime Minister Ishiba on shaky ground ahead of snap election

The self-confessed defence “geek” is a fan of trains, 1970s pop idols, and making military models, including once of a Soviet aircraft carrier for a visiting Russian Defence Minister.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likes crafting model ships but his short tenure could come unstuck if the gamble of calling snap election goes as badly on Sunday (October 27, 2024) as some polls suggest.

The self-confessed defence “geek” is a fan of trains, 1970s pop idols, and making military models, including once of a Soviet aircraft carrier for a visiting Russian Defence Minister.

Last month the 67-year-old saw off eight other candidates to become head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for seven decades.

He took office on October 1, replacing Fumio Kishida, who suffered from discontent over rising prices, a slush fund scandal, and LDP ties to a Christian movement in the wake of the 2022 assassination of ex-Premier Shinzo Abe.

Relatively popular

Although relatively popular with the public — at least before becoming PM — Mr. Ishiba had four previous failed bids to lead the party including in 2012 against his arch-rival Abe.

Mr. Ishiba long alienated party heavyweights with his “outspoken criticism of LDP policies under Abe”, said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo. But he became “vocal about the need for the LDP to turn over a new leaf,” which may have worked in his favour, Mr. Uchiyama said.

Despite hiccups, including over a doctored photo of the Cabinet, Mr. Ishiba got off to a good start and called snap elections after barely a week in office.

“This is an attempt to create a new Japan that will drastically change the nature of Japanese society,” he declared. He pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population with measures to support families, like flexible working hours.

This decade, he said, he wants to hike the average national minimum wage by nearly 43% to 1,500 yen per hour, although experts worry this will hurt small firms.

He has also backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would “not happen overnight”.

Popularity among voters is a different beast to the LDP leadership contest, where Mr. Ishiba “appeared popular because he occupied a unique position, standing in opposition to PM Abe and his successors within the party”, said Yosuke Sunahara, professor of public administration at Kobe University.

Dire predictions

Early polls gave Mr. Ishiba’s Cabinet approval ratings of 45-50%, compared with 20-30% for the hapless Kishida administration’s final month.

But Mr. Ishiba’s ratings have since fallen, not helped by him rowing back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. The father-of-two also missed a chance to appear more modern by appointing only two women to his Cabinet, down from five under Kishida.

Other polls warn the LDP could fail to win a majority on its own for the first time since 2009.

“Regardless of what the election results are, Ishiba’s longevity as Prime Minister is in question,” said Rintaro Nishimura at think-tank The Asia Group.

“There is a group of people (in the LDP) that could form a critical mass... and try and usher in a change. Not a change in government, but a change in leadership within the LDP,” he said.

Published - October 25, 2024 10:58 am IST