No end in sight to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon

When Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah began a televised address on Thursday, the sonic booms from Israeli jets sent a blunt message.

Designed to disrupt the speech and worry the many across Lebanon who were watching, it underlined the message delivered to the militant group earlier in the week by a series of explosions of communications equipment.

The wave of blasts killed scores, injured thousands and sent shockwaves through Lebanon as, once again, this conflict was brought to a new precipice.

Though Israel refused to comment on whether it was responsible for the explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, the assumption from both Hezbollah and most international actors is that the events were the work of Israeli intelligence.

The scale of the attacks, and the level of co-ordination and access required to carry them out, convinced most that Israel had planned the incidents, hailed by many in Israel as a major tactical victory.

As one Tel Aviv resident told the Reuters news agency on Tuesday night after the first wave of detonations, "it’s our brain against their muscle" as he lauded the fact that the fight had been brought so directly to Hezbollah.

Such consistent and high-level attacks have been hugely damaging for Hezbollah.

In a rare admission, the leader of the Iran-backed group, Hassan Nasrallah, said in his speech that "without doubt, we have suffered a major blow".

But there were more blows to come.

An Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut on Friday was said to have killed over a dozen Hezbollah officials with the organisation acknowledging the deaths of senior figures like Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi.

As Israel’s military basks in the knowledge that it has successfully carried out several tactical strikes against Hezbollah, the strategic impact of this week is less clear.

The key aim of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in northern Israel is to neutralise Hezbollah attacks to allow for the return of tens of thousands of Israeli citizens.

On both the Israeli and Lebanese sides of the border, large areas have been evacuated since 7 October as fire is traded daily between Hezbollah militants and Israeli forces.

With Hezbollah vowing revenge for the events of this week, it is far from clear when that objective of returning residents to their home will be met.

With a sense that no resolution to the issues in northern Israel can be found until a resolution in Gaza can be found, the last week has offered little in terms of hope.

As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has moved from one Middle Eastern capital city to another over the last year talking of a potential ceasefire deal, his mission has often seemed futile.

That sense of futility was never more evident than this week when Secretary Blinken arrived in Egypt just hours after those blasts across Lebanon.

Added to that was a report in the Washington Post suggesting that White House officials now accept a ceasefire is unlikely if not impossible before US President Joe Biden leaves office in January.

While President Biden may have batted such a suggestion aside, a US presidential race which is neck and neck may have given Israel’s prime minister pause for thought as he calculates whether it worth waiting to see who is sitting in the oval office early next year.

Neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor Hamas seem inclined towards agreeing a peace deal right now.

Without a tentative peace there, there is little chance of reducing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Suggestions that a Hezbollah weakened by the events of recent days might look to reach some detente with Israel seem unlikely as Hezbollah’s talk of revenge and retribution continues.

When that revenge might come and what form it might take are the next questions for the region, and for those hoping that some calm can be restored.