Ukraine: A week of escalation and Russian nuclear threats

This week has felt like Ukraine and the rest of eastern Europe were on the edge of a precipice, with each day bringing a different degree of escalation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's reaction to the Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range US-made ballistic missiles against Russian targets was hawkish and to be expected.

The US response has been to downplay the threat from Moscow.

The US Department of Defense said it was not surprised by Russia's decision to loosen the scope of its nuclear doctrine and US President Joe Biden has not commented directly about the Kremlin's talk of escalation.

Britain, too, has become more involved since it followed the Biden administration's lead and allowed Ukraine to use its Shadow Storm ballistic missiles to strike targets in Russia on Wednesday.

So far, Moscow's response has been to fire a new kind of hypersonic ballistic missile at a Ukrainian military facility in Dnipro.

Mr Putin said on Friday that Russia will continue to test this new weapon, the Oreshnik, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, in combat.

The missile has a range of up to 5,500km and travels at a rapid speed of a few kilometres per second, making it difficult to intercept.

But Russian forces have also increased the scale of their missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and the country’s energy infrastructure, killing dozens of people during the week and wounding many more. Sumy city and region in the northeast of Ukraine bore the worst of the attacks.

With Mr Putin threatening the further use of these new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), it does not look like this phase of escalation will end quickly, or at least before late January when Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Russia's use of an ICBM is being taken seriously by NATO, which will meet with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday to discuss the current situation and Russia’s use of its ICBMs.

Russia demonstates it is 'ready to start a third world war' - analyst

Talk of using nuclear weapons by the Russian leader is "a preparation for negotiations", Mykhailo Samus, a Ukrainian defence analyst, told RTÉ News.

The Kremlin’s new nuclear doctrine and its use of new hypersonic missiles, he said, is intended to show that Russia is "ready to start a third world war", and that Mr Trump needs to "motivate Zelensky to capitulate".

A likely scenario is that Ukraine will continue to strike Russian military targets in Russia with US and UK-produced ballistic missiles, only for Russia to retaliate each time by launching hypersonic intercontinental missiles at Ukraine.

The problem for Ukraine is that it does not have the right kind of anti-missile defence systems to neutralise Russia’s new hypersonic ballistic missiles.

Ukraine has received Patriot anti-missile systems from the US and other NATO countries but they are not designed to destroy ICBMs.

It was also not surprising that Russia launched its first ICBM strike this week on Dnipro, a region where air defences are not as fortified as the Kyiv region. So Russia could try pick off easier targets in Ukraine where anti-missile systems are weaker.

Ukraine would need anti-ballistic missile systems like Israel's Arrow 3 or the US-made Aegis system, originally designed to be launched from warships, to combat Russia's new weapon.

Interestingly, Israel did a deal earlier this month to supply Germany with an Arrow 3 system in 2025.

These systems are designed to destroy ICBMs while they are still in space at about a height of 200km and when they are travelling at a lower velocity.

"If we have a SM-6 Aegis missile system or an Arrow 3 Israeli system, it means that we will neutralise any long range missile Russian missile, hypersonic warhead, nuclear warhead," said Mr Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, a think tank in Kyiv.

The debris, he said, would also likely fall on Russian territory as anti-ballistic missile systems are designed to strike as the ICBM is ascending from its launch zone.

The US Army's Typhon system, a mobile missile launcher that is transported by army trucks, can launch a SM-6 anti-ballistic missile.

However, the Typhon system can also fire Tomahawk cruise missiles which Russia would see as an another form of escalation so that option may be off the table for the US.

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The other scenario, and the more terrifying one, is a limited nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine.

As Mr Putin told a group of international reporters in Moscow last June: "For some reason, the West believes that Russia will never use it [nuclear weapons]".

"We have a nuclear doctrine, look what it says. If someone's actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible for us to use all means at our disposal. This should not be taken lightly, superficially," he said.

Mr Putin has warned the west during the course of the war that Russia is prepared for the possibility of a nuclear war.

But the use of an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warheads is a definite escalation beyond the autocrat's previous verbal warnings to the west.

If Russia were to do the previously unthinkable and launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine, then NATO would be placed in a difficult situation.

It would not have grounds to strike back at Russia because Ukraine is not a NATO member.

"The Russian nuclear strategy is the only one that suggests a small scale nuclear war is a distinct possibility," Oleksandr Kraiev, a Ukrainian foreign policy expert, told RTÉ News.

Nuclear warning a 'direct bluff'

The west, he believes, has some kind of secret strategy to deal with this scenario simply because "Russia has been talking about it for ages".

"Russia is trying to intimidate Ukraine and its allies as much as possible in order for negotiations to start from the right position for Russia," said Mr Kraiev who heads the North America program at Prism, a Kyiv-based think tank.

But, in his view, Mr Putin's nuclear warnings, following the ICBM attacks on Dnipro this week, were "a direct bluff".

"I mean, the Russians call it a test fire. So they're basically testing their new weapons," he said.

After 33 months of war, Ukraine has little choice but to prepare for further escalation.

The sight of Ukraine's parliament shutting its doors on Friday in expectation of a Russian strike said as much.

Russia's conventional war along the 1,300km frontline will likely slow down as freezing winter grips eastern Ukraine, for a third time in this war.

That would favour Ukraine in the lead up to any potential talks or ceasefire next year.

And, then there is Mr Trump who will return to the White House in January. Given his past comments on ending the war quickly, he may try to de-escalate the situation from day one.

Until then, Russia will try to strengthen its position, meaning further escalation.

"I cannot exclude that Putin will use some low-power nuclear missile," said Mr Samus, adding that if Ukraine has "a real anti-missile system", it will be hard for Russia's president to use such a weapon.