Poll data puts spotlight on centre-left alliances

There is a view among some in Fine Gael that their combined number of seats with Fianna Fáil could end up somewhere between 78 and 80.

That might be an optimistic reading of the Exit Poll data, but either way it is too early in the day to predict exact seat numbers.

The RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll was carried out by Ipsos B&A.

It is clear though that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil look best placed to return to power.

There is an understanding that if the rotating taoiseach concept is to return, then the seat gap between the parties can be no greater than six.

They will need the support of another party or parties to form a government in order to push the numbers to 87, which is the threshold which must be met to have a Dáil majority.

How all that might unfold is not entirely clear given that their past partners, the Greens, will lose seats today.

It does put a spotlight on a possible alliance between the parties of the centre-left including the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats.

As a bloc this group would wield much power in any discussions around programme for government talks.

But the possibility of all three agreeing a united stance in advance of talking to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil looks remote.

Independents too could have a big part to play in government formation.

However, there appears to be a preference among the bigger parties to cut a deal with another party rather than a group of independents.

Even if Sinn Féin finishes with the highest number of TDs, its route to power looks blocked given that neither Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael are willing to share power with the party.

Plus, it does not look like there is anywhere near enough strength among smaller parties and left-wing independents to form a government with Sinn Féin.