Will Cork South West produce another election 'surprise'?

Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins, the poll topper in Cork South West at the last general election, suggests a meeting in Dunmanway: West Cork's forgotten town, as he describes it.

He says Dunmanway highlights the neglect of the constituency by the Government.

The area around the town is agricultural and farming is struggling.

He says another of the constituency's staples, tourism and hospitality, is equally experiencing tough times, not helped by the Government's refusal to reduce the VAT rate for the sector in the last Budget.

Finally, along the coast, fishing is on its knees. Here, he says a government-backed decommissioning scheme - "an absolute disaster" - is actually contributing to the contraction of the industry.

In Dunmanway though, as is the case elsewhere, housing and the cost of living are the main issues in this election.

Michael Collins points to the town's wastewater treatment plant, which he says is operating at capacity and which over-flowed during the summer. As a result, young people can't get planning permission to build houses in the town, he says.

He blames a lack of investment in critical infrastructure by the out-going government and by successive governments.

"Imagine a town like Dunmanway that's in close proximity to Clonakilty, to Bandon, to Cork, and that can offer so much itself, can't build a home for a young couple who want to build here today," Michael Collins says. "You have the same in Shannonvale in Clonakilty; you've the same in Rosscarbery; you have the same in Ballydehob and the same in Goleen - small towns and small villages."

Cork South West is a constituency with a mix of urban and rural settlements. Towns like Kinsale depend on tourism and the pharmaceutical industry. Further west, Bandon, Clonakilty, Skibbereen and Bantry are supported by agriculture and food production.

It's a big constituency for a three-seater, extending for more than 100km from east to west.

While attacking the Government for what he describes as its neglect of West Cork, Michael Collins is also anxious to stress his own record of delivery, which he hopes will help him to retain his seat.

He is one of the driving forces behind the 'Belfast or Blind' bus service, which has transported thousands of people from West Cork to Belfast for cataract surgery, for which they would otherwise have had to wait years through the public health system here.

He also led a successful campaign against the conversion of traditional bank branches in towns to cashless facilities.

Michael Collins insists his call to "slow the flow" of immigration was not racist.

He insists migrants are needed to fill positions in the health service and in the hospitality sector, but he is critical of the way the Government has communicated with communities in relation to migration.

As well as retaining his own Dáil seat in this election, Michael Collins says he wants to lead his party, Independent Ireland, in talks to form the next coalition government.

"The voice of Independent Ireland needs to be around the table. We're willing to do the talking and we're willing to deliver," he insists.

"As far as I'm concerned, we've been hurlers on the ditch long enough. It's time to come off the ditch and play the game. I'm willing to do that; my colleagues are willing to do that; Independent Ireland is willing to do that, but our policies are going to have to be sold and we're not going to go in [to government] just for the sake of getting a position."

The battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Cork South West - and the battle within Fine Gael itself - will be intriguing.

For more than 50 years, no Fianna Fáil first-time TD has retained the party's seat at the second election.

Part of Fine Gael's strategy in this constituency aims to ensure that that position will remain after this general election too.

But if Fine Gael is to regain a seat in Cork South West, which of the party's two candidates will be returned as a TD?

Fine Gael's Senator Tim Lombard has the benefit of a higher public profile, and more of a free run around his home base of Kinsale and Bandon, while the party's second candidate, Rosscarbery-based County Councillor Noel O'Donovan, claims his work rate on the ground will give him the edge.

For now, though, Fianna Fáil's Christopher O'Sullivan is the incumbent TD, and both Fine Gael candidates are chasing his seat.

Christopher O'Sullivan says he plans to become the first Fianna Fáil TD in more than five decades in Cork South West to retain his seat in his second election.

"I love nothing better than breaking records," he says. "I see that stat as a challenge that I'm really up for and look forward to breaking, and that I will be the first Fianna Fáil TD in decades to return a seat for Fianna Fáil. I love the challenge, and I firmly believe we can do it, and we will."

Tim Lombard insists he has no difficulty taking on a party colleague, in addition to having to defeat the other candidates in this constituency in order to win a seat.

"Absolutely not," he says.

Of Fine Gael's two-candidate strategy in Cork South West, Tim Lombard says: "It's a strategy that has worked over the last few years. It has always worked in the last 17 elections, bar one. It's a tried and tested model within Fine Gael. If you go back to Paddy Sheehan and Jim O'Keeffe, all the way back, it's something we've always done and I just think it's something we just need to work on, as an advantage, to make sure we can get to every house in this constituency."

Noel O'Donovan is back in politics after resigning his seat on Cork County Council in 2017 to become a Garda. His decision to return was endorsed by the electorate in June's local elections, when he successfully regained his council seat.

He insists his record and work rate will deliver one of the three seats in this constituency for him in this election.

"People have a choice to decide who they want to represent them, and no party holds that seat. It's up to the people to decide, but I hope my experience and my passion for politics will come through and people will support me," he says.

Evening is drawing in as the surprise TD from this constituency in the last general election, Holly Cairns, begins a canvass of a housing estate at Lady's Cross, on the western outskirts of Clonakilty.

It's just days before she is due to have her first baby, but there is no lack of energy as she goes door-to-door.

"The reality is, at the moment, there are 18 TDs in Cork and unfortunately there is only one woman. I'm the only woman elected in the biggest county in the country. There are actually six times more Michaels than women representing Cork at the moment, so it's no surprise that this political world isn't set up for this kind of thing," Holly Cairns says of her pregnancy.

"The fact that we're even talking about this shows how unusual it is, how unheard of it is, and I would say to anybody watching, I hope this doesn't deter anybody from getting involved in politics. The answer is, we need more women to get involved, for it to be less of a big deal. Ultimately, we need more mná in Irish politics. So, I would encourage people to get involved."

Holly Cairns' election as a TD in the last election was a shock. She was incredibly transfer friendly, gaining more than 3,000 transfers in the final count - the elimination of Sinn Féin's Paul Hayes - to propel her more than 500 votes ahead of Tim Lombard and into the final seat.

This time, she will be aided by a significantly higher public profile, having taken over the leadership of her party last year. At 34, she is the youngest party leader in the Dáil.

Retaining her seat is only one of her aims in this election: she also wants the Social Democrats to be part of the next coalition government.

"Absolutely," she says of her desire to lead the party into government. "I didn't go into politics for the craic. I went into politics to make a difference. We want to go into government. The key thing is, we don't want to go into government to make up the numbers; we want to go into government to make a difference."

It is generally accepted by most commentators that the next three TDs in Cork South West will be drawn from Michael Collins, Holly Cairns, Christopher O'Sullivan, Noel O'Donovan and Tim Lombard.

But surprises - just like Holly Cairns' breakthrough in the last election - happen too.

The candidates contesting the election in Cork South West are:

Holly Cairns (Social Democrats)

Alan Coleman (Independent)

Michael Collins (Independent Ireland)

Zoe Laplaud (People Before Profit-Solidarity)

Tim Lombard (Fine Gael)

Evie Nevin (Labour Party)

Clare O'Callaghan (Sinn Féin)

Noel O’Donovan (Fine Gael)

Deborah O’Driscoll (The Irish People)

John O’Leary (Independent)

Donnchadh Ó Seaghdha (Sinn Féin)

Christopher O'Sullivan (Fianna Fáil)

Máiréad Ruane (Aontú)

Mary Ryder (Green Party)