What Trump's victory means for security in eastern Europe

It was probably not the result that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky was hoping for.

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election and his return to the White House casts doubt over the future of American military aid for Ukraine.

Mr Trump is not a transatlanticist like outgoing President Joe Biden, but governments across central and eastern Europe understand that their countries need the United States to remain committed to safeguarding security along NATO's eastern flank.

In Ukraine's case, it needs the incoming Trump administration to continue sending much-needed weaponry.

Mr Zelensky congratulated Mr Trump this morning on X, saying that he recalled his "great meeting with President Trump in September!".

But the body language between both men in New York that day was cold and serious. It lacked the warmth that Mr Zelensky always received from Joe Biden.

Ukraine's president also wrote that he was looking forward to "an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump's decisive leadership" and that Ukraine relies on "continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States" - perhaps a nod to Democrats to not forget Ukraine’s cause in Congress.

Other leaders from central and eastern Europe offered similar congratulatory words on X, including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda.

Estonia's Prime Minister Kristen Michal spoke about working with Mr Trump to make "the transatlantic relationship stronger and not let aggressors win".

Poland and the three Baltic countries have upped their spending on defence beyond 3% of GDP since Russia's full-scale invasion (in Poland's case, it's more than 4% for this year), but US and NATO military support is a key part of their defence strategies.

So wishes of congratulations for Mr Trump and calls for continued strategic partnerships, even from the region's centrist leaders, shouldn't come as a surprise.

"Poland and the Baltics, countries that have direct exposure to Russia, their security is absolutely reliant on the US," Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight in Warsaw, told RTÉ News.

But the longer term view in the region, he said, is to build up European defence capabilities.

There is one leader from the region who will be genuinely rejoicing Mr Trump's victory with glee.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a frequent visitor to Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, called the election result the "biggest comeback in US political history" and said it was a "much needed victory for the world".

Mr Orbán identifies with Mr Trump’s brand of populism, opposing immigration and appealing to a broad Christian supporter base.

Mr Orbán’s government opposes sending military aid to Ukraine but, more gratingly for other EU member states and Hungary's NATO allies, he and his government have continued Hungary’s close economic and political ties with Russia since 2022.

Mr Trump’s victory could elevate Hungary's role in transatlantic discussions and, given Mr Orbán's good relations with the incoming US president, make it slightly harder for leaders of big European countries to dismiss his views on the war outright.

How the new Trump administration approaches Russia's war on Ukraine, or ending it, is of crucial importance to all governments in the region. Their future security plans depend on it.

For the past 32 months, since Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, providing five big aid packages for Kyiv totaling more than $100bn - almost $70bn of which has been military aid.

That American support has had its limits though.

The outgoing Democratic president and senior US officials never did agree to Ukraine’s demands to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike Russian military targets within Russia - it has been Mr Zelensky’s big ask throughout this year.

But getting permission for the use of long-range weapons seems even more unlikely under Mr Trump's presidency given the lack of enthusiasm in the Republican party to continue sending billions of dollars to Ukraine.

Senate Republicans blocked a big military aid bill for Ukraine for months earlier this year, using it as a bargaining chip to get through their demands to bring in tougher immigration controls at home.

In yesterday’s elections, Republicans took back control of the Senate and they might retain the House of Representatives.

If Republicans take Congress as well as the presidency, then the odds of Ukraine receiving new US military aid packages, at least for the next year, may become even less likely. European members of NATO would be unable to make up for the shortfall in any decreased US military funding for Kyiv.

Mr Trump's vice-president elect, JD Vance, has said that negotiating with Russia and Ukraine will be necessary to bring the war to an end.

Mr Vance is an isolationist who opposes US military aid for Ukraine and has said that Mr Trump's plan to end the war could include a demilitarised zone. That plan simply sounds like Ukraine would have to give up its territory that Russia currently occupies.

Some policy experts in Kyiv have voiced concerns privately that a continuation of the Biden policy on long-range missiles could eventually lead to Ukraine's demise and that a Trump administration might offer a solution.

But any solution would mean forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table. It is hard to know if the new Trump team can do that.

It is telling, however, that Kurt Volker, the former US special envoy for Ukraine during the first Trump administration, said a few days ago that Mr Trump does not want Ukraine to fail during his term.

Ukraine has been slowly losing ground to Russian forces along the eastern front for months and the Ukrainian army’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August has further stretched its supply lines.

It is simply too critical a juncture for Ukraine to lose its biggest patron.