High stakes and high drama as leaders prepare for debate

High stakes, high drama and an electoral outcome that remains up in the air.

Tonight's RTÉ Prime Time leaders' debate has all the ingredients for a nail-biting finish to this General Election after a fairly lacklustre campaign.

Opinion polls have put Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin neck and neck within days of the vote.

Yet, many have still not made up their mind on which party to back and consequently, who they want as Taoiseach.

It is clear from consistent polling that only Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael or Sinn Féin could be in a position to lead a coalition Government after the election.

When the dust is settled and negotiations are finalised, one of Micheál Martin, Simon Harris or Mary Lou McDonald will be elected Taoiseach.

Today, the three will spend hours prepping and gaming out debate tactics and scenarios with their teams.

Party hacks will stand in for RTÉ’s Miriam O’Callaghan and Sarah McInerney, subjecting their leader to a grilling to ensure they have the answers to hand.

Attack lines will have been sharpened as the three will no doubt attempt to shine an unflattering spotlight on their opponents.

In modern times, TV debates tend to become diluted down into key clips which immortalise moments that endure on social media.

All participants will be aiming to avoid any faltering responses or gaffes.

Another dynamic will be how the coalition partners handle their interactions.

Will the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael leaders emphasise their points of difference and separate identities?

Or will there be an undercurrent of presenting a solid, cohesive front to underline that the two could work together again?

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The two men will also be aware that it would look bad if they appeared to gang up against the Sinn Féin leader, so they may wish to avoid co-ordinated attacks.

Any semblance of a joint strategy could allow Mary Lou McDonald to return to one of her party’s favoured narratives, presenting itself as the outsiders excluded from power while the elites cling to Government.

Fine Gael leader Simon Haris

The 38-year-old has been Taoiseach for seven months and has moulded Fine Gael’s image and electoral campaign around his patented "new energy".

However, the shine has come off Simon Harris in recent days following a series of blunders and a dive in the polls.

This debate is his chance to reset the dial after a disappointing campaign for the party.

An additional challenge for Mr Harris is that this is his first time taking part in such a small debate while his opponents are more seasoned hands.

However, he has been in politics since his early 20s and was elected as a councillor in 2004.

He gained a seat in Wicklow in 2011, becoming the youngest TD in that Dáil.

From then, his ambitions to lead have been clear as he climbed his way up the ministerial ladder.

In health, he had a tricky time and a no-confidence motion in him precipitated the 2020 election.

Expect his time in health to be raised tonight, particularly his failed promise to eliminate waiting lists for scoliosis.

There is also likely to be a focus on his role in the mammoth €2.2 billion (and counting) price tag for the National Children’s Hospital, particularly following a tactical error last week.

On RTÉ Upfront’s Katie Hannon, Mr Harris said that he did not sign off on the hospital although he later clarified that "the buck stops with me".

In addition, the controversy surrounding the candidacy of Senator John McGahon in Louth may also be raised.

And despite a series of apologies, he may once again have to explain his dismissive response to disability work Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk on Friday.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin

The 62-year-old Cork South-Central TD has by far the most experience of these type of electoral set pieces.

Micheál Martin has led Fianna Fáil into four general elections and has faced the TV lights of such debates many times.

However, each encounter has its own dynamic and potential pitfalls.

This time, Fianna Fáil’s stewardship of the housing portfolio is certain to be questioned where he will aim to convince that the crisis is turning a corner.

Health is the other area where Mr Martin may be on the back foot.

He has repeatedly ruled out doing business with Sinn Féin after the election but expects this to be challenged by Ms McDonald who has portrayed this rejection as the others conspiring to freeze out her party.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald

The 55-year-old is at the helm of Sinn Féin for her second General Election campaign after taking over from former leader Gerry Adams in 2018.

This was a pivotal moment for the party, allowing it to greatly broaden its appeal with a new younger leader unconnected to the Troubles.

Mary Lou McDonald led Sinn Féin to its biggest ever haul of seats in 2020 where it returned 35 TDs.

Up to ten more could have been added if the party had run more candidates, a mistake which has haunted them.

Following the election, Sinn Féin rose steadily in opinion polls to reach the dizzying heights of support in the mid-30s.

But over the past 18 months, that support has fallen precipitously. However, it is now pretty much level with the other two medium-sized parties.

Expect Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to query whether Sinn Féin could be trusted to run the economy.

Another attack line is likely to be the party’s radical plan to deliver €300,000 affordable homes.

This has faced scrutiny over whether banks would lend for properties where the borrower does not own the land.

The party has had a torrid few months leaving it firefighting through a series of controversies.

But it appears to have halted its drop in the polls and the party is pushing its change message insisting that it now has momentum in the final week of this campaign.

The leader's debate will be live on RTÉ One, the RTÉ News Channel and the RTÉ Player from 9.35pm