Election campaign fails to reach anticipated high notes

It was the writer Robert Harris who reminded everyone recently that an election is a living thing that wriggles in ways no one can predict.

Citing a passage from his trilogy on Cicero, he reminded everyone that "you can always spot a fool for he is the man who will tell you that he knows who is going to win an election".

These are words worth remembering at the end of the first week of a general election campaign which rarely hit the anticipated high notes and was devoid of wriggling.

But these are just the opening miles of a marathon that has unfolded largely without incident.

The controversy generated by those Fine Gael chuckles at Michael O'Leary’s pejorative comments about teachers, did not seem to linger.

While the promises on the big election issues of housing, the cost of living and healthcare have been abundant, the voters’ response has been muted thus far.

Parties poring over data say that internet searches show that while large numbers of people checked to see if they were on the voting register earlier in the week, only small numbers paid much heed to the multitude of political pledges.

The voters are reserving judgement, for the moment at least.

Anecdotally, the Fianna Fáil promise to increase the State pension to €350 over the next five years, and to a lesser extent People Before Profit’s plan for a four-day working week, are being spoken about on the campaign trail.

However, several candidates report meeting people who are steadfast in their view that they will not vote in this election. The reasons vary but many are parents of children who had to emigrate because they felt they would never own a home here.

"Emigration is something that is there in rural and even urban areas and a lot of people are raising it," one candidate said.

While immigration is not the fervent issue it was last June, there are reports of ongoing disgruntlement in some areas.

"Something like jealousy has entered the psyche and people feel those who came here have greater access to housing and healthcare, and it is hard to shift that view," a candidate running in the midlands said.

Independents have momentum

The conventional wisdom after the first week of campaigning suggests that independent candidates have momentum.

What that will mean in seat terms is unclear, though given that support for non-party candidates typically hinges on the strength of individuals in their constituencies.

Both the Fine Gael and the Sinn Féin leaders this week urged people not to vote for independents, which illustrates the threat they pose to political parties.

Plus, candidates who recently shed their party colours to run as an independent will impact the vote in several areas.

This includes former Fianna Fáil politicians such as Michael Sheehan in Wexford, Noel Thomas in Galway West and Eugene Murphy in Roscommon-Galway.

Independent is a broad term and it also now includes a political party, Independent Ireland, who look set to make gains with Ken O’Flynn in Cork North Central and Shane P O’Reilly in Cavan-Monaghan.

As a new week of campaigning beckons, the second act of this drama is expected to be more revealing as many candidates are still struggling to gauge the voters' sentiment.

A 'polite ear'

The three bigger parties constantly reference good chats with potential voters who they say are offering them a polite ear at least.

But in most cases the engagement lacks the level of intensity required to make a definitive call on their voting intentions.

This indicates that the pattern seen in the local and European elections, where most voters only made their minds up late in the campaign, is likely to be repeated.

Voters will have a plethora of promises to choose from.

But does this unwittingly pose a problem for the parties in the outgoing government, especially given that some of them are now offering things they dismissed as options in the Budget last month?

The apparent contradiction was summed up by the Aontú Leader Peadar Tóibín when he said some of those making the promises must have "dual personalities".

For Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin though, the message is that things are on the right track, and he is keen to emphasise that the party’s plans are pragmatic, thorough, and affordable.

Not so said Fine Gael, culminating in that bitter row on TV between Jack Chambers and Hildegarde Naughton over the sums underpinning the Fianna Fáil manifesto.

All the while Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty looked on calmly as anger flowed all around him.

Mr Doherty's equanimity was in keeping with his party's steady start to this election campaign. The party says there is a sense among the public that this is a critically important election, and they detect anger towards the government parties overhousing, rent hikes, childcare, and a range of cost of living issues with us.

Fine Gael believes it had a solid week too and that is borne out in polling results.

Those poll findings come after Simon Harris criss-crossed the country to shake as many hands as possible ahead of the launch of the party’s manifesto in Tipperary tomorrow.

The party points to research following the local and European elections that proved again just how influential the canvassing of voters can be.

Following the large amount of ground covered by Simon Harris this week, the period ahead will likely see more strategic visits to constituencies where gains look possible.

It is expected too that there will be an attempt to shift the debate to the economy.

As things stand Fine Gael has a lead over other parties but Fianna Fáil is quietly confident that its ground operation has an edge, while Sinn Féin’s optimism is typified by the addition of more candidates to its election ticket this week.

The smaller parties too are still in contention to make gains in several constituencies.

The themes that will dominate the remainder of the campaign, and ultimately determine the outcome of this election, should become clearer when ten political leaders debate the issues on RTÉ’s Upfront on Monday night.

Until then the constant canvassing will continue to keep this election campaign wriggling.