Republicans keep House of Representatives majority in 2025. How it affects California

WASHINGTON

Republicans maintained a slim House of Representatives majority in 2025, the Associated Press projected, thanks in part to California GOP incumbents holding onto their seats in close elections.

That means that when the 119th Congress convenes in January, Republicans will control of the presidency, Senate and House. President-elect Donald Trump and GOP leadership should have an easier time passing their agenda — barring GOP renegades. Republicans last had that kind of control during the first two years of Trump’s presidency in 2017 and 2018.

House Republicans met the 218 threshold for taking the majority when the AP declared Rep. Juan Ciscomani the winner in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District at 7:27 p.m. Pacific Time on Wednesday.

Earlier Wednesday, the AP said Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, held onto his Southern California seat. Tuesday night, Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, held his. California in 2022 also helped deliver Republicans a thin House majority.

Four uncalled 2024 California races might pad GOP and Democratic ranks. At the moment, the Republicans will control at least 218 seats when the next Congress convenes in January. Democrats will have at least 208.

That small majority, though, means that a handful of Republicans can sink leadership’s legislation. That happened last year when several discontented rebels successfully led an effort to oust GOP Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and sparked three weeks of infighting over who would take the gavel.

Republicans chose their leadership in Washington on Wednesday. Californians didn’t ascend to these upper ranks in the process, which might mean the state’s issues aren’t as prioritized as others.

The biggest blow to California from a Republican-led House and Senate could come from tinkering with the federal budget. But there’s probably no need to worry that severe cuts are coming, at least not for a while.

When Democrats controlled one chamber of Congress in the percent past, there was usually a powerful California member or two making sure there was money to support clean energy, criminal justice reforms and other state priorities.

Not only was San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi the speaker or minority leader from 2007 to 2023, but two California Democrats, Pete Aguilar and Ted Lieu, became numbers three and four in the House party leadership last year.

Even when Republicans controlled the House, Bakersfield’s McCarthy was part of the leadership until he was ousted as speaker in September 2023.

There’s likely to be no California Republican in the House leadership in the upcoming Congress. Nor is there likely to be a California committee chairman.

Californians on subcommittees

But there are GOP Californians with key subcommittee slots, including panels that deal with water, natural resources and farming that govern issues important to the state’s Central Valley, a 450-mile stretch of fertile farmland.

It’s likely that there will be shuffling on the committees as new members join and veterans move up.

As of now, Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Richvale, is chairman of the forestry subcommittee of the Agriculture Committee.

Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, is the chairman of a House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration and border security. Trump’s team has made mass deportations a Day 1 priority. McClintock is also on the House Budget Committee.

McClintock, while a staunch conservative, has been known to break ranks. He was among three Republican defectors to vote against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas — twice — in February 2024 over the secretary’s handling of the southern border.

The first vote failed while the GOP’s second vote a week later succeeded. McClintock, along with Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, was among four Republicans who voted against a resolution in July to hold in contempt Attorney General Merrick Garland for his refusing to hand over audio recordings of President Joe Biden’s interview with a special counsel that raised questions about age and mental fitness.

Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, is chairman of the subcommittee on workforce protections. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-San Diego, is chairman of a subcommittee on courts, intellectual property and the Internet. And Rep. Jay Obernolte, R-Big Bear Lake, is chairman of a subcommittee on investigations and oversight of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee.

California’s budget hopes

California’s best budget hope rests with two senior delegation members. Calvert has been chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee. Valadao was number two on the agriculture appropriations subcommittee.

California lost Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, who is an appropriations committee member. Democrat George Whitesides ousted him in California’s 27th Congressional District, the AP projected.

Appropriations members are among the most powerful lawmakers in Congress, since they write the spending bills.

The good news: For years, Congress has been unable to adopt entire annual budgets before the federal fiscal year begins October 1. There are generally too many local interests vying for money and legislative rules that make easy approval difficult.

Every president since Bill Clinton in 1993 has taken office with his party controlling both the House and Senate. None have been able to get an entire annual budget passed on time in that first year.

The state, though, has less clout on tax matters. Trump has said he would end the cap on state and local deductions from federal income tax. The 2017 tax law put a $10,000 lid on deductions.

Removing that cap would be a huge benefit to Californians. Most of the 2017 tax changes expire at the end of next year, and Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, currently the top Republican on the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, told The Bee this fall that “everything is negotiable.”

Any such efforts would also involve legislation written in the Ways & Means Committee. In the last Congress, only one of the 25 Republicans, Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, was from California, and she was far down the list of senior — influential — members. Her Southern California race against Democrat Derek Tran is still too close to call.

This story was originally published November 13, 2024, 7:46 PM.