Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for Week 3, 2024: Dodge this undefeated team

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 3 NFL survivor picks

Josh Allen has the longest active winning streak among quarterbacks at seven, while Trevor Lawrence has the longest active losing streak at seven. Bills vs. Jaguars will take place on Monday Night Football, making this as tempting a game to gravitate towards with Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks as any. The Jags have beaten the Bills in each of their last two meetings, as Lawrence owns a 2-0 career record against Allen. The Jaguars have prevailed in Jacksonville and in London in those previous matchups, with Monday's game taking place in Buffalo. If Lawrence's success against the Bills scares you away from Buffalo with NFL knockout pool picks, where should you turn instead? Before finalizing any Week 3 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in its Week 3 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 3 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Chiefs (-3, 46.5) versus Atlanta, even though the reigning champs have started off 2-0, with wins over preseason Super Bowl contenders in the Ravens and Bengals. The Chiefs are limping into this matchup as not only is WR Marquise Brown out until January, but RB Isiah Pacheco was just placed on IR this week. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce is healthy but has also been a non-factor this year with just four catches for 39 yards and zero touchdowns. That's putting lots of pressure on Patrick Mahomes to make plays, but he can only do so much, and his performance in his last game indicates just that.

Mahomes had just 151 passing yards and two interceptions in the win over Cincinnati, with the passing yardage being the lowest in his NFL career over a full game. Atlanta already possesses one of the best passing defenses in the league, ranking seventh against the air game and allowing just one passing TD on the year. Add in that Kansas City lost its last SNF game -- in which it was a 5.5-point favorite over Green Bay in Week 13 of 2023 -- and there are just too many concerns with the champs to use them in Week 3 NFL knockout pools. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 3 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 3, all from the advanced computer model that nailed both its Weeks 1 and 2 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.