Christopher Nkunku Chelsea surprise now imminent as Nicolas Jackson set to force latest decision

It would be fair for Christopher Nkunku to think that his best chance of starting for Chelsea in the Premier League again this season is for Nicolas Jackson to max out the yellow card suspension meter. Luckily for the Frenchman, but not for Enzo Maresca, he is close.

All the evidence from the opening 11 games is that Nkunku is not going to be used in the position he largely occupied for RB Leipzig, a deeper role as somewhat of a shadow striker alongside a focal point where he thrived and convinced Chelsea to spend over £52million to sign him, doing the deal almost an entire year in advance to beat the competition. Instead, he is fighting against Jackson and awaiting a severe drop in form, or something else.

12 months ago and Nkunku would have been backed to win over a coach - be it Maresca or Mauricio Pochettino - and make the spot his own, even if it isn't his most natural. Only one other striker in the division has more goal contributions than Jackson this season, though, and that is Erling Haaland, who has no assists.

Under Pochettino, Jackson's output was bettered by only five out-and-out No.9s. That was his debut campaign in England, one in which he showed signs of developing quickly. That has continued and left Nkunku as possibly the best player grace the Conference League regularly, ever, as he struggles for significant Premier League appearances.

Nkunku is part of a select group of players who are genuinely fighting for Premier League minutes from those largely getting their game time in midweek (via the Conference League or previously the Carabao Cup, too). Alongside Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto, and perhaps Renato Veiga, albeit to a lesser extent, they are the only four really pushing to start in the so-called 'A team.'

Such has been the trust placed in Jackson, Nkunku is hardly getting a chance off the bench either. His longest appearance as a substitute in the league was 26 minutes (not including stoppage time) against West Ham with Chelsea also 3-0 up and cruising.

He hasn't come on before the 70th minute outside of that, failing to make it onto the pitch with the game level at Old Trafford and only for a matter of seconds when Arsenal visited Stamford Bridge before the international break. Heading into December, and a busy run of games, Nkunku's only league start remains as he was posted out on the left flank for the opening day defeat to Manchester City.

It has not been the way he wanted a first injury-free spell at the club to go. Despite accepting the frustration, Maresca has done little tangibly on Premier League gamedays to address it, regardless. Soon enough his hand may well be forced.

With Jackson just one game away from suspension, Nkunku looks set to get the chance to prove his worth domestically sooner rather than later. Although Marc Guiu is a forward without the versatility to offer backup as a shadow striker or left winger like Nkunku, it would be a surprise if he got much of a look in when Jackson does eventually miss out.

Given Jackson's disciplinary record, it is very much a 'when' rather than 'if' situation. Chelsea face Leicester City in the first match back after the break with both Jackson and Nkunku fit to play. It is Conference League action in midweek afterwards before a bigger and more challenging task four days later away to Aston Villa.

Unai Emery's side are only just inside the top half for now but still pose more of a threat than most of the upcoming opponents for Chelsea. The welcome of Southampton after that is welcome relief on paper before a London derby at Tottenham follows.

It is a run of games that sees Chelsea given a chance to dispose of two newly promoted and struggling sides whilst also getting opportunities to create a buffer with their top four contending rivals. The congestion and schedule will see Jackson, if available, miss at least the Conference League trip to Heidenheim in Germany. He has been left out of the matchday squad for each group phase match to date, rested with no need to even travel.

Nkunku is, therefore, seemingly pencilled in for that on Thursday. Maresca will, of course, dispute this sort of heirarchy but his selections have told a different story.

However, with Villa the biggest event of the week, the plans - and Chelsea will need to plan ahead for the amount of games to come - could be shaken up. Should Jackson, and Neto for the matter, be booked at the King Power Stadium on Saturday lunchtime, he will not able to play against Villa. That would leave Nkunku as the most obvious replacement.

This isn't a bad outcome for the 27-year-old as he looks for any sort of way into the side. The alternative is to start Nkunku at Leicester - a game Chelsea will enter as massive favourites, and to reduce the risk of Jackson picking up a fifth booking.

That would have knock-on effects for Villa, Southampton, and Tottenham as well. Jackson can still get a yellow card if used as a sub (or if not used at all, such is his seemingly creative insistence on finding a way onto the referee's naughty list), so it is not a total assurance he will make it to next Sunday.

It is something for Maresca to consider, though. There is no guarantee that he will be booked if chosen to start against Leicester, Villa, and Southampton leading into the Spurs meeting, but surely there is an element of hedging bets and having him there for the two tougher matches to come.

The other benefit of this is that Nkunku, who has not complained publicly but is now becoming the centre of growing noise and speculation over his future at Chelsea, would be at least appeased by the opportunity. If that keeps him happy for even a little bit longer then all parties stand to gain.

It may not be what Nkunku really wants, and is unlikely to cause a sea-change at Chelsea just yet unless Maresca shifts his tactical approach or positional thoughts regarding the player, but a start is on the horizon. Whether that can be the start of something more and the circumstances in which it comes about are unknown, but Nkunku is not in a spot to turn his nose either way.